Colorado’s children are in trouble. They will be better off if state government takes more of their parents’ money. That’s the Colorado Children’s Campaign’s story, and it’s sticking to it.

In its 2008 KidsCount in Colorado! report, the Colorado Children’s Campaign claims that “poverty is the biggest obstacle to opportunity for children, and between 2000-2006, the number of children living in poverty in Colorado increased by 73 percent—the highest increase by far of any state in the nation.”

The Campaign’s estimates of 2006 child poverty match the 2006 Census Bureau estimates. So how does it get a 73 percent increase?

By serving up artificially low 2000 numbers.

Using the Current Population Survey and the 2000 Census, the Census Bureau suggests that the percentage of children in poverty in Colorado was 14.2 (±2.1) percent in 1998, 12.0 (±2.2) in 1999, and 12.2 (±1.3) percent in 2000.

But in 2000, the Colorado Children’s Campaign says that child poverty was 9 percent--a lot lower than the Census estimates. It got the number from the Annie E. Casey Foundation which says its contractor used the Census 2000 Supplementary survey.

According to the Census Bureau, the 2000 Supplementary Survey surveyed only a few Colorado counties. Those counties have relatively low child poverty rates. The limited survey may be the reason the Annie E. Casey estimate is so low. When the survey was made more representative in 2006, child poverty appeared to increase.

More representative data suggest that Colorado child poverty rates have likely increased a bit since 2000, a not unexpected result in a state with an expanding economy that has been attractive to immigrants, both legal and illegal, for much of the past decade.

Of course, neither the Children's Campaign or any one else really knows how poor children are doing in Colorado.

Official poverty statistics only measure money income. They ignore benefits like food stamps, housing subsidies, and Medicaid. They also ignore the Earned Income Tax Credit. It provided 1 in 6 taxpayers with an average of $1,800 in additional cash in 2004. Over at Welfare Reform Academy, demographer Nicholas Eberstadt calculates that with pretax incomes of $8,316, low-income Americans reported annual consumption expenditures of $19,061.

Tax freedom day for the average non-poor Coloradan is 113 days after the start of the year. This means that with a pretax income of $54,000, he will report annual consumption expenditures of roughly $37,300.

A little more taxing and spending and the children from an average Colorado household may enjoy about the same consumptions expenditures as children from a poor one.