How Many Uninsured?
Thursday, October 16, 2008Health Care at a CrossroadsBy Nathan BenefieldCategories: How Many Uninsured?Bob Moffit of Heritage writes that we are at a crossroads in health care in term of the difference between McCain and Obama's proposals. The Commonwealth Foundation has said much the same thing about the divergent paths we face in health care reforms at the state level. Moffit also seems to be one of few who have noted Obama's "pay or play mandate," though I'm not sure why he doesn't compare Obama's plan to the failure of RomneyCare:The Obama plan is comprehensive in scope, but sparse in detail. ... Independent analysts expect that Obama’s creation of a new national health plan within a federally run “health insurance exchange” would lead to a rapid erosion of private coverage in general and employer-based coverage in particular. ... Independent analysts generally see McCain’s proposal as a bold and innovative change in health care financing. Powered by a universal health care tax credit, the tax policy change would result in a rapid expansion in private health insurance coverage and a decrease in dependency on government programs. While some critics imply that McCain’s proposal to tax health benefits to finance the tax credit amounts to a tax increase, the indisputable truth is that it is a major tax cut, particularly for the middle class.David Gratzer also has a piece detailing why Obama's attack on McCain's plan is unfair, noting (among other things), that there is no reason why employers would stop providing health care plans: But it’s difficult to understand why employers would run for the exits. Under the McCain plan, they would still be allowed to take tax deductions on payroll, as they do now (no raising of costs here). By one estimate, the total number of insured Americans would increase under the McCain plan as Americans—including many currently uninsured—opt to buy insurance directly, armed with a tax credit. That estimate may be quite conservative, since the McCain plan would also let people purchase health coverage across state lines, allowing them to shop around for better deals and making coverage more affordable for all. A recent study suggests that even without the tax credit, 12 million uninsured would get insurance through such a reform alone.Finally, there is the "Gillespie plan" - this video from the Reason Foundation in which Nick Gillespie details his plan: "If you want health insurance, get some."
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Friday, August 8, 2008Getting to Know the UninsuredBy Grace-Marie TurnerCategories: Care Without Insurance, How Many Uninsured?, Insurance RegulationIn Tom Miller's detailed AEI analysis of trends in the number of Americans without health insurance, he says the broader issue of slowly-declining rates of insurance coverage in the United States remains more a chronic condition (needing better diagnosis and more than one kind of treatment) than a crisis (needing emergency surgery). Universal mandates to purchase coverage won't work as long as people can't afford it, taxpayers won't subsidize it any more than they already do, and politicians won't enforce unpopular rules to buy it anyway, writes Miller. Reversing decades of overregulation, mistargeted tax subsidies, and lack of transparency in the health care sector would not solve all problems, but it sure would help.
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Tuesday, July 1, 200847 Million ... Or Not?By Paul HsiehCategories: How Many Uninsured?There are two serious problems with the commonly-cited number of 47 million Americans without health insurance: First, the "47 million" figure exaggerates the problem by a huge amount, as discussed in this short video, "Uninsured in America" as well as in numerous articles such as "The '47 Million' Uninsured Myth" in the August 29, 2007 issue of Investors Business Daily.
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Monday, February 25, 2008Number of Uninsured UpBy Grace-Marie TurnerCategories: How Many Uninsured?The number of uninsured people in the U.S. grew by 3.4 million between 2004 and 2006, a time of robust economic growth, largely due to a continued decline in employment-based health insurance. This is the key finding in the latest study by John Holahan of the Urban Institute entitled, "The U.S. Economy and Changes in Health Insurance Coverage, 2000-2006." Not surprisingly, the declines were greatest among those with lower incomes. It is worth remembering that every time the cost of health insurance rises by 1%, the number of people with health insurance declines by 200,000 to 300,000 people. During 2004-2006, employer health benefit costs rose by nearly 20%. It is not surprising that those at the lower end of the income scale, whose wages are most sensitive to benefit cost pressures, are most likely to be impacted.
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Thursday, October 4, 2007Counting the UninsuredBy John LaPlanteCategories: How Many Uninsured?How many people are in the group we call "the uninsured?" It all depends on how you count them, says the Hoover Institution.
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Tuesday, August 21, 2007Heads Up - Latest Census Figures on Uninsured to Be Released Next TuesdayBy Tarren R. BragdonCategories: How Many Uninsured?Recently the US Census Bureau announced that they will be releasing the 2006 uninsured figures on Tuesday, August 28 at 10 AM (EDT). As health care analysts, we should be prepared to discuss the latest figures and how they relate to all the talk about universal health care, health insurance regulation, etc. Also next week, Census will be revising state-level figures for private and public health coverage and uninsured for 1995 through 2003, correcting the overreporting of the number of uninsured revealed in March of this year. These revised figures will allow all of us to do better analysis on how uninsured (and private coverage) rates for kids and adults have changed over the last decade.
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Wednesday, April 4, 2007Number of Uninsured OverestimatedBy Grace-Marie TurnerCategories: How Many Uninsured?The Census Bureau has reported that more Americans have health insurance than it had previously reported. It says about 1.8 million more people had health insurance in 2005 than it reported last August, bringing the uninsured number down to 44.8 million. It turns out that the undercount was largely for dependents. Our colleague Doug Badger points out that these new numbers should be discussed in the context of the debate over expanding the State Children's Health Insurance Program since the new figures now show that the percentage of children who lacked coverage in 2005 is actually quite low by historic standards. Here are the numbers (in 000s), according to Doug: Total Uninsured 2001: 41,207 (14.6%) 2002: 43,574 (15.2%) 2003: 44,961 (15.6%) 2004: 43,498 (14.9%) 2005: 44,815 (15.3%)
2001: 8,509 (11.7%) 2002: 8,531 (11.6%) 2003: 8,373 (11.4%) 2004: 7,721 (10.5%) 2005: 8,050 (10.9%) In light of this, is a $50 billion expansion of SCHIP really a good idea? And even more, is it really a good idea to expand SCHIP to "children" as old as 25 and to kids in families making $83,000 a year, as Sen. Clinton and Rep. Dingell have proposed? Better policy would be for states to focus on making sure that the lower-income kids already eligible for SCHIP are covered. Then any extra money that Congress puts on the table could be spent providing help for other groups where the uninsured rate is many times higher - including lower-income working Americans. The president's health initiative would be a much better investment in restoring equity to the health care system and expanding coverage more efficiently.
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